It appears that Time Warner may be moving in reverse while Comcast presses ahead towards DOCSIS 3.0.
I'm sorry...but for $45 / month, I should be able to use all of my 8 megabits 24/7 if I want to. In terms of the value of bandwidth in Japan, my 8mbit internet should only cost $1.13 / month. Obviously, American ISPs have been sitting back, collecting money from us consumers while the rest of the world actually spent some money to upgrade their backend capacity.
There ought to be mass exodus from Time Warner if they implement a bandwidth cap. Unfortunately, 99.99% of Americans have no idea how badly they're getting screwed vis-à-vis Europe and Japan.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Feel the Rudy-mentum!!
As reported by TPM, in a rare cross-party race, Rudy Giuliani narrowly defeated Dennis Kucinich today (or, rather, yesterday) in the Michigan primary by fewer than 3,000 votes.
Rudy only trailed Romney by 313,141 votes. So close!
Rudy only trailed Romney by 313,141 votes. So close!
 |  |
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Thoughts on Open Source
In the past year or so, I have become more and more opposed to Microsoft than I had in the past. Obviously, the advent of "Windows Genuine Advantage" and the draconian DRM features in Vista played a major role in my decision, but there has also been a shift in my mentality.
Over the past few months, I've done a bunch of research on open source server OSes. I have become fond of OpenBSD which, by all accounts (that I've seen), is one of the most secure operating systems in the world. The project is headed by a Canadian named Theo de Raadt and is a derivative of 4.4 BSD, which itself is a derivative of the original UNIX. de Raadt was originally a NetBSD developer, but split from the NetBSD team in the mid-90s. OpenBSD, as its name implies, is entirely open source. de Raadt is a major proponent of the open source movement and has done a lot of work getting hardware vendors to release specifications that allow open source drivers to be written.
I have installed OpenBSD several times over the past few months: first trying to get it to be a print server at my apartment, and then later to be an SMTP server up at work. I have long preferred text file configuration over Microsoft Management Console, but OpenBSD really drives that home. It is so well organized that I rarely run into problems that I have had elsewhere. It was generally a positive experience. There are some areas that they can improve on, but given their limited resources, the OpenBSD team does a tremendous job.
That experience was fresh in my mind when, on Friday, my work computer spontaneously combusted and died on me. Naturally, this is just about the worst possible weekend for this to happen. I've got a giant day coming up tomorrow, so I couldn't afford any downtime, plus I had planned on moving this weekend. Scrap those plans. Got to fix the computer.
I decided to replace most of the guts in my machine to make sure the impetus of my motherboard frying was no longer in the case. So, with the new parts in my computer, I set out to boot from my hard drives. The Windows XP loading screen flashed briefly, and then blue screened. My first beef: open source operating systems certainly aren't above crashing or bugs in general, but this would not have happened to me in Linux. If the Linux kernel supports my hardware, it's gonna boot -- or at least get me to a point where I can modify settings and change things up.
So, I decided to try out a Windows "Repair Install." I put my Windows CD in the drive, and powered on. The installer started up and everything was fine until it told me that it couldn't find any hard drives in my system. (!!) I immediately knew what the problem was: the Windows installer didn't have drivers for my RAID. The only way around this is with a floppy drive. And not just any floppy drive, but an old-school, ribbon cable floppy drive. USB floppy drives do not work with the Windows installer. Beef number two: This would *never* happen in an open source OS. Every open source OS installer that I've ever used will always let you drop to a command line and load drivers via any means available. What a miserable shortcoming in the Windows XP installer.
During the repair install, I was prompted for my product key. Damn lucky that I had been smart enough to stick my Certificate of Authenticity to the side of my case, or else this might have screwed me. Why do I need to re-enter my product key during a repair install? In fact, why should I have to enter a product key at all!? I paid $160 for that copy of Windows XP. Shouldn't that spare me from entering 20-digit, random, alphanumeric character sequences that are obnoxiously difficult to read?
Then, when things finally booted up, Windows informed me that my activation was no longer valid. I suppose the change in motherboard was suspicious. Hey, Microsoft! I'm not using the old board because it FRIED ITSELF. Luckily, I didn't have to call a Microsoft surrogate in India and explain myself. (I've had to do that before). I'm sure if I ever go and do something like that again, I will have to waste 30 minutes of my life demonstrating to Microsoft that I still have a legal Windows license.
Further souring my mood, Adobe Photoshop popped up with the same complaint. It also let me re-activate without incident. I paid over $900 for Adobe Creative Suite. I damn sure shouldn't have to call them.
If this had been an OpenBSD computer, I would have put the new motherboard in, hit the power switch and I would have been done. I could copy my OS onto 25 computers, and I wouldn't violate any license. I could modify the source code, compile it, put it in a propriety box of my own, and sell it for millions of dollars and I still wouldn't violate any license. Legally, I wouldn't owe Theo de Raadt a dime. Of course, if that happened, I would make a large donation to the OpenBSD project, but I would be under no obligation to do so.
So, after the events of this weekend, my stance against Microsoft has hardened. My intention is for Windows XP to be the last Microsoft OS that I ever use. If I can help it, it will also be the last Microsoft operating system that my company uses. I am hoping, that by the time Microsoft ends its support for XP, Linux will have made itself a viable alternative. There are a few things that need to happen before I can recommend Linux for my company, but those things CAN happen, and I fully expect them to.
There are three software packages that my company uses that have no Linux counterparts. Two of them are very specialized packages made especially for my industry. The vendors for said packages are relatively small and ought to be interested in what I have to say, given that I represent a rather large client. I will inform them that we are going to be moving to Linux at some point before the end of Windows XP's support period and that, if they do not intend to port their programs to Linux, we will need to begin exploring alternatives in the near future.
I feel a little like a caged animal here. When a company behaves like Microsoft, I should be able to react by ceasing to do business with them. But I can't. They're a monopoly and I have to use their software. So, I press forward and deal with the problems and expenses that come with using Microsoft software. But at some point, they're going to push me to the point where I will make some sacrifices to avoid using their products.
Over the past few months, I've done a bunch of research on open source server OSes. I have become fond of OpenBSD which, by all accounts (that I've seen), is one of the most secure operating systems in the world. The project is headed by a Canadian named Theo de Raadt and is a derivative of 4.4 BSD, which itself is a derivative of the original UNIX. de Raadt was originally a NetBSD developer, but split from the NetBSD team in the mid-90s. OpenBSD, as its name implies, is entirely open source. de Raadt is a major proponent of the open source movement and has done a lot of work getting hardware vendors to release specifications that allow open source drivers to be written.
I have installed OpenBSD several times over the past few months: first trying to get it to be a print server at my apartment, and then later to be an SMTP server up at work. I have long preferred text file configuration over Microsoft Management Console, but OpenBSD really drives that home. It is so well organized that I rarely run into problems that I have had elsewhere. It was generally a positive experience. There are some areas that they can improve on, but given their limited resources, the OpenBSD team does a tremendous job.
That experience was fresh in my mind when, on Friday, my work computer spontaneously combusted and died on me. Naturally, this is just about the worst possible weekend for this to happen. I've got a giant day coming up tomorrow, so I couldn't afford any downtime, plus I had planned on moving this weekend. Scrap those plans. Got to fix the computer.
I decided to replace most of the guts in my machine to make sure the impetus of my motherboard frying was no longer in the case. So, with the new parts in my computer, I set out to boot from my hard drives. The Windows XP loading screen flashed briefly, and then blue screened. My first beef: open source operating systems certainly aren't above crashing or bugs in general, but this would not have happened to me in Linux. If the Linux kernel supports my hardware, it's gonna boot -- or at least get me to a point where I can modify settings and change things up.
So, I decided to try out a Windows "Repair Install." I put my Windows CD in the drive, and powered on. The installer started up and everything was fine until it told me that it couldn't find any hard drives in my system. (!!) I immediately knew what the problem was: the Windows installer didn't have drivers for my RAID. The only way around this is with a floppy drive. And not just any floppy drive, but an old-school, ribbon cable floppy drive. USB floppy drives do not work with the Windows installer. Beef number two: This would *never* happen in an open source OS. Every open source OS installer that I've ever used will always let you drop to a command line and load drivers via any means available. What a miserable shortcoming in the Windows XP installer.
During the repair install, I was prompted for my product key. Damn lucky that I had been smart enough to stick my Certificate of Authenticity to the side of my case, or else this might have screwed me. Why do I need to re-enter my product key during a repair install? In fact, why should I have to enter a product key at all!? I paid $160 for that copy of Windows XP. Shouldn't that spare me from entering 20-digit, random, alphanumeric character sequences that are obnoxiously difficult to read?
Then, when things finally booted up, Windows informed me that my activation was no longer valid. I suppose the change in motherboard was suspicious. Hey, Microsoft! I'm not using the old board because it FRIED ITSELF. Luckily, I didn't have to call a Microsoft surrogate in India and explain myself. (I've had to do that before). I'm sure if I ever go and do something like that again, I will have to waste 30 minutes of my life demonstrating to Microsoft that I still have a legal Windows license.
Further souring my mood, Adobe Photoshop popped up with the same complaint. It also let me re-activate without incident. I paid over $900 for Adobe Creative Suite. I damn sure shouldn't have to call them.
If this had been an OpenBSD computer, I would have put the new motherboard in, hit the power switch and I would have been done. I could copy my OS onto 25 computers, and I wouldn't violate any license. I could modify the source code, compile it, put it in a propriety box of my own, and sell it for millions of dollars and I still wouldn't violate any license. Legally, I wouldn't owe Theo de Raadt a dime. Of course, if that happened, I would make a large donation to the OpenBSD project, but I would be under no obligation to do so.
So, after the events of this weekend, my stance against Microsoft has hardened. My intention is for Windows XP to be the last Microsoft OS that I ever use. If I can help it, it will also be the last Microsoft operating system that my company uses. I am hoping, that by the time Microsoft ends its support for XP, Linux will have made itself a viable alternative. There are a few things that need to happen before I can recommend Linux for my company, but those things CAN happen, and I fully expect them to.
There are three software packages that my company uses that have no Linux counterparts. Two of them are very specialized packages made especially for my industry. The vendors for said packages are relatively small and ought to be interested in what I have to say, given that I represent a rather large client. I will inform them that we are going to be moving to Linux at some point before the end of Windows XP's support period and that, if they do not intend to port their programs to Linux, we will need to begin exploring alternatives in the near future.
I feel a little like a caged animal here. When a company behaves like Microsoft, I should be able to react by ceasing to do business with them. But I can't. They're a monopoly and I have to use their software. So, I press forward and deal with the problems and expenses that come with using Microsoft software. But at some point, they're going to push me to the point where I will make some sacrifices to avoid using their products.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
More politics...
I must admit... I did not see Hillary pulling this one out. What an interesting race this is. John Edwards, who I think is a great candidate and well-liked across the country just doesn't have a chance next to the mega-candidacies of Clinton and Obama.
My Dad said earlier that this is the best presidential election since 1960. The Democratic primary race was between four extremely high profile politicians: Kennedy, LBJ, Hubert Humphrey, and Adlai Stephenson. The Republicans meahwhile, had Nixon, Goldwater and Nelson Rockefeller running. What a group! Three Presidents, and the rest all very well-known guys.
He thinks that this one may be even better. I think 1960 probably still wins unless Al Gore enters the race. The smattering of politicians isn't quite as impressive this time around, but Clinton and Obama are certainly unique. I mean, either of them would have just killed John Kerry four years ago. Edwards, who is much stronger now due to his 2004 notoriety, is still a 3rd wheel at best.
I do think that the ramifications of this election are much more important than in 1960. Civil Rights and the Cold War are certainly not issues to scoff at, but the county really is in a perilous situation now. Never before has America been so universally hated around the world. I don't care how powerful we are; we only make up 3% of the world's population. It is not good foreign policy to go around pissing 97% of the world off. Yet, though the arrogance and stupidity of the Bush/Cheney trainwreck, we have pulled that off. We have squandered the good will of the rest of the world that our predecessors had painstakingly built for the first 220 years of our existence. People around the world used to dream of coming to America for a new start on life. Now we have to wear sweat shirts with a prominent maple leaf sewn on the front when we travel abroad.
The Iraq war has done unmeasurable harm to our volunteer army. Never again will our government be able to look potential recruits in the eye and say "We will not take advantage of the sacrifice you made for your country." We have taken these people who have put their lives on the line for us and treated them like absolute crap. When they go off to war, we don't adequately arm them. When they come home, we don't adequately provide medical care, especially for post-traumatic stress syndrome. When we say their obligations are over, we renege and send them back to Iraq again and again. How are people so thoroughly brainwashed that they accuse people like me of not "supporting the troops."
But I digress. This election is important not only for the tactical moves the next President will make or the policies that he or she will enact. It is important for the future of our country that we regain the respect of the world. This country is doomed to failure if the world looks at America and sees an arrogant country, wantonly displaying its military strength expecting everyone else to cower in fear. And while John McCain or some of the other Republicans may very well make decent Presidents, we must show the world that we repudiate these disastrous past 8 years by *not* electing another Republican.
My Dad said earlier that this is the best presidential election since 1960. The Democratic primary race was between four extremely high profile politicians: Kennedy, LBJ, Hubert Humphrey, and Adlai Stephenson. The Republicans meahwhile, had Nixon, Goldwater and Nelson Rockefeller running. What a group! Three Presidents, and the rest all very well-known guys.
He thinks that this one may be even better. I think 1960 probably still wins unless Al Gore enters the race. The smattering of politicians isn't quite as impressive this time around, but Clinton and Obama are certainly unique. I mean, either of them would have just killed John Kerry four years ago. Edwards, who is much stronger now due to his 2004 notoriety, is still a 3rd wheel at best.
I do think that the ramifications of this election are much more important than in 1960. Civil Rights and the Cold War are certainly not issues to scoff at, but the county really is in a perilous situation now. Never before has America been so universally hated around the world. I don't care how powerful we are; we only make up 3% of the world's population. It is not good foreign policy to go around pissing 97% of the world off. Yet, though the arrogance and stupidity of the Bush/Cheney trainwreck, we have pulled that off. We have squandered the good will of the rest of the world that our predecessors had painstakingly built for the first 220 years of our existence. People around the world used to dream of coming to America for a new start on life. Now we have to wear sweat shirts with a prominent maple leaf sewn on the front when we travel abroad.
The Iraq war has done unmeasurable harm to our volunteer army. Never again will our government be able to look potential recruits in the eye and say "We will not take advantage of the sacrifice you made for your country." We have taken these people who have put their lives on the line for us and treated them like absolute crap. When they go off to war, we don't adequately arm them. When they come home, we don't adequately provide medical care, especially for post-traumatic stress syndrome. When we say their obligations are over, we renege and send them back to Iraq again and again. How are people so thoroughly brainwashed that they accuse people like me of not "supporting the troops."
But I digress. This election is important not only for the tactical moves the next President will make or the policies that he or she will enact. It is important for the future of our country that we regain the respect of the world. This country is doomed to failure if the world looks at America and sees an arrogant country, wantonly displaying its military strength expecting everyone else to cower in fear. And while John McCain or some of the other Republicans may very well make decent Presidents, we must show the world that we repudiate these disastrous past 8 years by *not* electing another Republican.
Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the President or any other public official save exactly to the degree in which he himself stands by the country. It is patriotic to support him insofar as he efficiently serves the country. It is unpatriotic not to oppose him to the exact extent that by inefficiency or otherwise he fails in his duty to stand by the country.
- Theodore Roosevelt
It's Comcastic!
Clearly, Comcast must read my blog.
I certainly can't think of any other explanation for this.
If DOCSIS 3.0 can get up and running quickly, maybe the sky really isn't falling. It's nice to know that American companies are evidently concerned the internets are 1/20 as fast here as they are in Japan. I figured FiOS would spur a response from the friendly, neighborhood cable companies, but it seems they feel a threat not only from 15mbps fibre, but from Europeans who can stream four simultaneous HD movies for $10/month.
Tomorrow, I will be moving to an apartment where FiOS is available. I hope that by this time next year, the cable companies will make me think about switching. The only way this thing is going to get fixed is if there is an arms race between TelCo and cable.
On a side note that makes me laugh, one company that's just got to be hating this is Sony. They finally win a format war, only to have their victory spoiled within days by a technology that will allow people to download an entire HD movie in 4 minutes. Tee heehee. Two years from now, people will be chunking their Blu ray players into the closet on top of the old Betamax. And, of all companies not to see this coming... a company from Japan! Nice going, guys.
I certainly can't think of any other explanation for this.
If DOCSIS 3.0 can get up and running quickly, maybe the sky really isn't falling. It's nice to know that American companies are evidently concerned the internets are 1/20 as fast here as they are in Japan. I figured FiOS would spur a response from the friendly, neighborhood cable companies, but it seems they feel a threat not only from 15mbps fibre, but from Europeans who can stream four simultaneous HD movies for $10/month.
Tomorrow, I will be moving to an apartment where FiOS is available. I hope that by this time next year, the cable companies will make me think about switching. The only way this thing is going to get fixed is if there is an arms race between TelCo and cable.
On a side note that makes me laugh, one company that's just got to be hating this is Sony. They finally win a format war, only to have their victory spoiled within days by a technology that will allow people to download an entire HD movie in 4 minutes. Tee heehee. Two years from now, people will be chunking their Blu ray players into the closet on top of the old Betamax. And, of all companies not to see this coming... a company from Japan! Nice going, guys.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
New Hampshire Primary
Things to watch:
On the Democratic side, obviously, Hillary Clinton needs a strong showing. Obama could get some serious momentum going with a big win. The latest polls show Obama with a double-digit lead. Hillary may be in serious trouble.
As for the Republicans, things are, as always, highly entertaining. We have the odd dynamic of the national leader, and winner of the Iowa Caucuses (Huckabee) as a total non-factor. There aren't many evangelical Republicans in NH, and that's not a good thing for Huck. This primary is between McCain and Romney. Thompson is a dead man walking, and Guiliani has employed the patented Wesley Clark "ignore Iowa and New Hampshire" strategy which worked so well for Wes.
I didn't watch, but apparently Romney killed at the GOP debate earlier today. (Feel the Mittmentum!) He has to overcome two unprecedented anti-endorsements from the big NH daily newspapers, but this debate might give him an edge.
A big wildcard is where the independent voters decide to vote. If more than expected vote in the Republican primary, that will give McCain a boost. I don't see that happening, though. With the general dissatisfaction with Dubya, the Iraq War, and with all the momentum that Obama is generating, independents will be with the Democrats tomorrow. I'm not sure which of the Dem candidates that helps... probably Obama.
On the Democratic side, obviously, Hillary Clinton needs a strong showing. Obama could get some serious momentum going with a big win. The latest polls show Obama with a double-digit lead. Hillary may be in serious trouble.
As for the Republicans, things are, as always, highly entertaining. We have the odd dynamic of the national leader, and winner of the Iowa Caucuses (Huckabee) as a total non-factor. There aren't many evangelical Republicans in NH, and that's not a good thing for Huck. This primary is between McCain and Romney. Thompson is a dead man walking, and Guiliani has employed the patented Wesley Clark "ignore Iowa and New Hampshire" strategy which worked so well for Wes.
I didn't watch, but apparently Romney killed at the GOP debate earlier today. (Feel the Mittmentum!) He has to overcome two unprecedented anti-endorsements from the big NH daily newspapers, but this debate might give him an edge.
A big wildcard is where the independent voters decide to vote. If more than expected vote in the Republican primary, that will give McCain a boost. I don't see that happening, though. With the general dissatisfaction with Dubya, the Iraq War, and with all the momentum that Obama is generating, independents will be with the Democrats tomorrow. I'm not sure which of the Dem candidates that helps... probably Obama.
Thoughts on the NFL
A few thoughts from this weekend's playoff teams:
San Diego:
San Diego is a really interesting team. They are essentially trying to copy the early 90's Cowboys formula with the "triplets" (and by hiring Norv Turner). The problem is that I'm not really sure that formula is possible under the salary cap. The 90's Cowboys pounded people into submission with their giant offensive line. They had hall of fame quality players in Aikman, Smith, Irvin, and Novacek on the offense, but what really made them *great* was the combination of those players with the line. Emmitt Smith didn't have to work his ass off for every yard. Nate Newton and Erik Williams handed him 3 yards on a silver platter every time he took a handoff. Likewise, Aikman was rarely running for his life when he dropped back to pass.
I'm not sold on the Chargers offensive line. The Titans made Tomlinson look like Julius Jones today. Maybe Albert Haynesworth is just that good, but I don't think so. Tomlinson is past the point in his career where he is going to rip defenses apart without any help. Don't get me wrong, he's still really, really good, but he's past his absolute peak.
Plus, I still think they never should have gotten rid of Drew Brees. Philip Rivers looks like Troy Aikman. Hell, he might be about as talented as Aikman. But, like Aikman, he is most effective at the helm of a super-team. He can't move much in the pocket, so his receivers have to get open quickly. And, with the exception of Gates, his receivers aren't much to write home about. Brees can move around a little and he's smarter than Rivers.
I don't see them going much of anywhere this year. They're just not good enough to beat the Colts in Indy. This offseason, they need to go after a big-time wide receiver. If Antonio Gates isn't the only receiver commanding a double-team, they will be dangerous. An upgrade in the O-Line wouldn't hurt either.
Jacksonville:
Now this is an interesting team. Forget Minnesota; the team with the best 1-2 running back punch is the Jaguars. I can't believe Fred Taylor is still good! He was always great when he wasn't hurt, but I just assumed all of the injuries would have caught up with him by now.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have their worst nightmare staring at them in this next game. New England's defense is really good at scheming to stop a passing game and confuse a quarterback, but they're not particularly physical and they're really, really old. A big-time running game is exactly what they don't want to see this next round.
Still, it will be an up-hill climb for the Jags. They need to play relatively conservatively. Their key will be to dominate the time of possession. Mike Martz/Andy Reid-style play calling will kill them. No flea flickers. No surprise onside kicks. Those plays will just end up giving Tom Brady more chances to kill them. They need to consistently get good yardage on 1st down so they aren't forced into 3rd-and-longs. Garrard isn't good enough to beat New England by himself. If the defense can force a turnover here and there, they might have a shot.
New York Giants:
The Cowboys are writing thank you notes to Mike Holmgren for beating the Redskins. We never did really have a good game against them this year and I was really scared to play them again. Now, Eli Manning -- I don't mind that so much.
The Giants without Shockey aren't that imposing. They still have their super pass rush. If Umenyiora and Strahan have big days, the Cowboys could be in trouble, but I don't see it.
This is all assuming, of course, that the pre-December Cowboys show up next week. If the team that lost to Philadelphia and barely beat Carolina shows up, all bets are off.
Seattle:
Seattle is a little more dangerous than the Giants. Hasselbeck can get in a good grove and put up some points. The ghost of Shaun Alexander isn't much of a threat at running back. I think they might upset Green Bay, but only if it isn't 5 degrees and snowing.
That game will be about Favre. If he plays like he did in the first half against Dallas, Seattle might win by 20 points.
Predictions:
Jacksonville 31, New England 21
Indianapolis 24, San Diego 17
Green Bay 35, Seattle 31
Dallas 31, NY Giants 13
I had to pick at least one upset... :) Dirk Nowitzki will send Brady a condolence card.
San Diego:
San Diego is a really interesting team. They are essentially trying to copy the early 90's Cowboys formula with the "triplets" (and by hiring Norv Turner). The problem is that I'm not really sure that formula is possible under the salary cap. The 90's Cowboys pounded people into submission with their giant offensive line. They had hall of fame quality players in Aikman, Smith, Irvin, and Novacek on the offense, but what really made them *great* was the combination of those players with the line. Emmitt Smith didn't have to work his ass off for every yard. Nate Newton and Erik Williams handed him 3 yards on a silver platter every time he took a handoff. Likewise, Aikman was rarely running for his life when he dropped back to pass.
I'm not sold on the Chargers offensive line. The Titans made Tomlinson look like Julius Jones today. Maybe Albert Haynesworth is just that good, but I don't think so. Tomlinson is past the point in his career where he is going to rip defenses apart without any help. Don't get me wrong, he's still really, really good, but he's past his absolute peak.
Plus, I still think they never should have gotten rid of Drew Brees. Philip Rivers looks like Troy Aikman. Hell, he might be about as talented as Aikman. But, like Aikman, he is most effective at the helm of a super-team. He can't move much in the pocket, so his receivers have to get open quickly. And, with the exception of Gates, his receivers aren't much to write home about. Brees can move around a little and he's smarter than Rivers.
I don't see them going much of anywhere this year. They're just not good enough to beat the Colts in Indy. This offseason, they need to go after a big-time wide receiver. If Antonio Gates isn't the only receiver commanding a double-team, they will be dangerous. An upgrade in the O-Line wouldn't hurt either.
Jacksonville:
Now this is an interesting team. Forget Minnesota; the team with the best 1-2 running back punch is the Jaguars. I can't believe Fred Taylor is still good! He was always great when he wasn't hurt, but I just assumed all of the injuries would have caught up with him by now.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have their worst nightmare staring at them in this next game. New England's defense is really good at scheming to stop a passing game and confuse a quarterback, but they're not particularly physical and they're really, really old. A big-time running game is exactly what they don't want to see this next round.
Still, it will be an up-hill climb for the Jags. They need to play relatively conservatively. Their key will be to dominate the time of possession. Mike Martz/Andy Reid-style play calling will kill them. No flea flickers. No surprise onside kicks. Those plays will just end up giving Tom Brady more chances to kill them. They need to consistently get good yardage on 1st down so they aren't forced into 3rd-and-longs. Garrard isn't good enough to beat New England by himself. If the defense can force a turnover here and there, they might have a shot.
New York Giants:
The Cowboys are writing thank you notes to Mike Holmgren for beating the Redskins. We never did really have a good game against them this year and I was really scared to play them again. Now, Eli Manning -- I don't mind that so much.
The Giants without Shockey aren't that imposing. They still have their super pass rush. If Umenyiora and Strahan have big days, the Cowboys could be in trouble, but I don't see it.
This is all assuming, of course, that the pre-December Cowboys show up next week. If the team that lost to Philadelphia and barely beat Carolina shows up, all bets are off.
Seattle:
Seattle is a little more dangerous than the Giants. Hasselbeck can get in a good grove and put up some points. The ghost of Shaun Alexander isn't much of a threat at running back. I think they might upset Green Bay, but only if it isn't 5 degrees and snowing.
That game will be about Favre. If he plays like he did in the first half against Dallas, Seattle might win by 20 points.
Predictions:
Jacksonville 31, New England 21
Indianapolis 24, San Diego 17
Green Bay 35, Seattle 31
Dallas 31, NY Giants 13
I had to pick at least one upset... :) Dirk Nowitzki will send Brady a condolence card.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)