The recent dive by the Rangers likely ends their playoff hopes after a season that has been a breath of fresh air for beleaguered Ranger fans. The plan to develop from within that management committed to a few years ago has really started to pay dividends. The future looks bright.
After all I've seen this year, I'm not going to totally count them out, but, given that young pitchers frequently don't have the stamina to pitch late into September, the prospects are looking pretty grim. So, with that said, here is my review of some of the important players on the team going forward.
Starting Pitchers
Kevin Millwood - What started as a great season for Millwood is flaming out in spectacular fashion. Sabermetricians from all corners predicted a "regression to the mean" for Millwood after the All Star break. His knack for leaving runners on base and ultra-low BABIP (batting average on balls in play) were unsustainable given his career norms. But, instead of a regression, we've gotten an all-out meltdown which, honestly, came as a surprise to me. The guy looks like he ought to be a workhorse, but clearly he's pretty fragile. The team may consider shutting him down, but if they do, they will inspire conspiracy theorists to say that MLB is forcing the Rangers' hand to avoid his $12 million guaranteed option if he reaches 180 IP. Should be interesting, anyway.
Scott Feldman - You think Feldman has a shot at making the rotation out of Spring Training next year? After two years starting the season in the bullpen, Feldman has really established himself as a solid starter. A couple months ago, Bob Sturm pointed out that Feldman's extremely low strikeout rates probably indicated that he will come crashing down to earth at some point, but since that time, he has boosted his strikeouts, including an amazing 11-strikeout performance against Tampa Bay in August. Perhaps Sturm overlooked the fact that Feldman is still evolving as a pitcher. His new cut fastball continues to be the best in baseball (click on the wCT column header twice to sort), but isn't a strikeout pitch (though it does break a ridiculous number of bats). In his latest good stretch, Feldman has started to mix in his other secondary pitches (curveball and changeup) and the strikeouts have risen.
Tommy Hunter - A workhorse in the making, Hunter has been very, very good since being called up. I forsee a 200-inning machine for many years to come. Earlier this year, I heard people comparing Hunter to Rick Helling. That would certainly be nice, but Hunter's numbers this year have been better than anything Helling ever did -- and that's pretty exciting.
Derek Holland - Holland showed a few flashes of brilliance before appearing to run out of steam. He has gotten his feet wet and I expect really big things in the coming years.
Neftali Feliz - Feliz rose through the minors as a starter, so you know the Rangers will eventually try him in the rotation. Whether that happens next year, or the year after, I can't say, but it will happen. At any rate, if he ends up as a super-reliever or a starter, I will make every effort to be watching every time he's on the mound. What a talent!
Brandon McCarthy, Matt Harrison, Dustin Nippert, Eric Hurley - Depth for the rotation. All of those guys have a chance to become quality MLB starters and they will provide a nice insurance policy for the Rangers next year.
Martin Perez - The 18-year-old super-prospect has finished his season in AA Frisco. He was inconsistent after his promotion to AA, but that is to be expected given that he's the youngest player in that league by fully two years. There is an outside chance that Perez could make an appearance in Arlington next year, but we probably won't see him until 2011. His bona fides are as good or better than Feliz and Holland.
Bullpen
Frank Francisco - Injuries slowed what has otherwise been a very good season. If Frankie can stay healthy for an entire season, he could be one the best closers in baseball. (He could help his cause by eating fewer pies in the offseason)
C.J. Wilson - Except for a handful of bad outings, Wilson has been very good this year. He is most useful in a set-up role because he can go multiple innings. (Wilson used to be a starter) If Francisco stays healthy, Wilson can man the 8th and sometimes the 7th as well.
Darren O'Day - Best waiver signing ever.
The rest - Grilli, Guardado, Mathis, Strop, and a few of the starters from above round up the bullpen and they've been pretty good as well. Juaquin Benoit could be in the mix next year, coming off rotator cuff surgery. Guardado will probably retire, so they'll need to track down another lefty from somewhere.
Hitting
2 - Catcher - Salty held this position for most of the year until he was sidelined with thoracic outlet syndrome (a rare condition unless you play for the Rangers). Salty's defense was adequate (in other words, much improved) and would have been fine if he could hit anything. His line of .233/.290/.371 (BA/OBP/Slugging) is abysmal, especially for a player whose strength was supposedly hitting. After Salty went down, we got a pretty good dose of Taylor Teagarden. Teagarden's defense was inconsistent which is disappointing, given his scouting reports. (He was compared to Pudge defensively in the minors.) Meanwhile, though he probably deserved more at bats to get a rhythm going, his offensive numbers (.212/.273/.376) were actually worse than Salty. So, a position that was supposed to be a strength for the Rangers has turned out to be a major weakness and that leaves the Rangers with some decisions for next year.
The Greatest Catcher of All Time
3 - First Base - It looks like Davis has mostly solved his issues from beginning of the season. If he has, he could hold down the fort at first base for a very long time -- especially given his outstanding defense. However, hovering just below in AAA, the Ranger's top hitting prospect Justin Smoak (also a first baseman) figures to be ready for the majors next year. Davis is probably the better defender, but Smoak is no slouch. I expect those two to alternate between 1B and DH much of next year.
4 - Second Base - Kinsler had a bit of a down year offensively, though it does seem a little ridiculous to complain when your second baseman has a 30/30 season. Kinsler's defense has been outstanding and he's really cut down on his errors. It helps to have a superior shortstop as a double play partner.
5 - Third Base - Michael Young bounced back from a down year (playing with two broken fingers) with a tour de force season offensively (.322/.375/.523). He was consistently the Rangers best hitter all year long and, with two more homers, he will match his career high. For a player that appeared to be in a decline, it was a pleasant surprise. Defensively, Young is the same as always. He has limited range, but is very sure-handed when he gets to the ball. Overall, the fielding metrics rate Young as a well below average third baseman, but I expect him to improve with more experience at the position. Besides, we aren't in great need for a standout fielding third baseman because we have...
6 - Shortstop - Elvis Andrus has been a revelation at shortstop. Only Jack Wilson has a better UZR rating (a stat that measures fielding -- click on the UZR heading twice to sort) than Andrus. When Andrus cuts down on his errors (and he will with experience) he ought to be the best fielding shortstop in baseball or close to it for years to come. Andrus is the single biggest reason that the team's pitching has improved so much from past seasons. His hitting (.275/.338/.391) has outpaced most of the predictions I heard before the season and he is very much in contention for the AL Rookie of the Year. At 21 years old, his hitting will only improve. As I've heard some commentators say, if Andrus had just played this season in New York, everyone would be calling him the next Derek Jeter. I think we may have just witnessed the beginning of a hall of fame-caliber career.
Utility Infielder - The old man, Omar Vizquel has performed admirably this season. Fangraphs.com show his defense at 3B and SS to be excellent, and about MLB average at 2B. The numbers are very small samples, but I think they reflect a very strong performance in the field from the future Hall of Famer. Meanwhile, at the plate Vizquel rebounded from a very poor season last year and posted a respectable .273/.324/.354 (right in line with his career average, amazingly). All of that, and he doubles as a personal coach for Elvis Andrus; Vizquel has more than carried his weight this season. If he wants to play next year, I think the Rangers will welcome him back without hesitation despite the fact that he will turn 43 in 2010.
7-8-9 - Outfield
David Murphy - Murphy had a solid season, bouncing back from an 0-23 start. However, the Rangers outfield is so deep that he may be squeezed out next season.
Marlon Byrd - Byrd is a valuable player because he is so flexible. He can play all three outfield positions and he can hit almost anywhere in the lineup. Going forward, I see him as a super-4th outfielder. It will be more difficult to fit him in, however, if Justin Smoak is manning DH.
Nelson Cruz - After two aborted attempts in the majors, Cruz finally broke through in a big, big way this year. After 2006 and 2007, Cruz looked to be the epitome of a "AAAA" player. He scorched AAA pitching, but couldn't seem to hit in the majors. In 2008, the Rangers were naturally skeptical of his strong performance in AAA, but eventually his numbers were too overwhelming (.342/.429/.695) to ignore. When he was promoted to the majors, he finally broke through (.330/.421/.609) against major league pitching over 100+ at bats. This year, as pitchers adjusted to him, his numbers weren't quite as ridiculous as last (if they were, he would be Albert Pujols), but they have been respectable (.268/.342/.547, 32 HRs and counting). And, as an added bonus, his UZR has been the best in the majors among right fielders. Next year, Ron Washington needs to pencil Nelson Cruz at the clean-up spot every time he plays.
Julio Borbon - Borbon is the Rangers lead-off hitter and center fielder of the future. He has given every indication that he is ready take on that role right now. For some reason, the Rangers have been hesitant to play him in center field -- perhaps to let him concentrate on hitting -- but that should change next year. Borbon's elite speed will give opposing teams fits when he gets on base.
Josh Hamilton - And, of course, the biggest wildcard of them all: Hamilton. He set baseball on fire last year with an otherworldly first half, topped off with his fireworks display at the homerun derby in Yankee Stadium. Since then, however, he hasn't been nearly as good. This year, he was one of the Ranger's weakest hitters. Part of me wants to write off Hamilton's 2009 season due to injuries, and pencil the 2008 version of Josh Hamilton in the 3rd spot in the lineup next year. The Rangers, of course, will hedge their bets. That, more than any other reason, may be why David Murphy is a Ranger next year -- as an insurance policy.
Outlook for 2010
Barring a miraculous comeback, this Rangers team appears to be headed to a 9th consecutive season without a playoff appearance. It appears, however, that they have very good chance to stop that streak before it hits 10. The minor league system that produced Cruz, Borbon, Holland, Feliz, Andrus, Hunter, et al. is locked and loaded to produce several more waves in the next few seasons -- especially in terms of pitching. The aforementioned Martin Perez highlights a new crop of young arms that will continue pushing the Rangers into a new era where pitching is a strength instead of a laughingstock as it has been for a very long time. I, for one, am eagerly anticipating April 2010.
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