Sunday, January 6, 2008

New Hampshire Primary

Things to watch:

On the Democratic side, obviously, Hillary Clinton needs a strong showing. Obama could get some serious momentum going with a big win. The latest polls show Obama with a double-digit lead. Hillary may be in serious trouble.

As for the Republicans, things are, as always, highly entertaining. We have the odd dynamic of the national leader, and winner of the Iowa Caucuses (Huckabee) as a total non-factor. There aren't many evangelical Republicans in NH, and that's not a good thing for Huck. This primary is between McCain and Romney. Thompson is a dead man walking, and Guiliani has employed the patented Wesley Clark "ignore Iowa and New Hampshire" strategy which worked so well for Wes.

I didn't watch, but apparently Romney killed at the GOP debate earlier today. (Feel the Mittmentum!) He has to overcome two unprecedented anti-endorsements from the big NH daily newspapers, but this debate might give him an edge.

A big wildcard is where the independent voters decide to vote. If more than expected vote in the Republican primary, that will give McCain a boost. I don't see that happening, though. With the general dissatisfaction with Dubya, the Iraq War, and with all the momentum that Obama is generating, independents will be with the Democrats tomorrow. I'm not sure which of the Dem candidates that helps... probably Obama.

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