Thoughts on the NFL

A few thoughts from this weekend's playoff teams:

San Diego:

San Diego is a really interesting team. They are essentially trying to copy the early 90's Cowboys formula with the "triplets" (and by hiring Norv Turner). The problem is that I'm not really sure that formula is possible under the salary cap. The 90's Cowboys pounded people into submission with their giant offensive line. They had hall of fame quality players in Aikman, Smith, Irvin, and Novacek on the offense, but what really made them *great* was the combination of those players with the line. Emmitt Smith didn't have to work his ass off for every yard. Nate Newton and Erik Williams handed him 3 yards on a silver platter every time he took a handoff. Likewise, Aikman was rarely running for his life when he dropped back to pass.

I'm not sold on the Chargers offensive line. The Titans made Tomlinson look like Julius Jones today. Maybe Albert Haynesworth is just that good, but I don't think so. Tomlinson is past the point in his career where he is going to rip defenses apart without any help. Don't get me wrong, he's still really, really good, but he's past his absolute peak.

Plus, I still think they never should have gotten rid of Drew Brees. Philip Rivers looks like Troy Aikman. Hell, he might be about as talented as Aikman. But, like Aikman, he is most effective at the helm of a super-team. He can't move much in the pocket, so his receivers have to get open quickly. And, with the exception of Gates, his receivers aren't much to write home about. Brees can move around a little and he's smarter than Rivers.

I don't see them going much of anywhere this year. They're just not good enough to beat the Colts in Indy. This offseason, they need to go after a big-time wide receiver. If Antonio Gates isn't the only receiver commanding a double-team, they will be dangerous. An upgrade in the O-Line wouldn't hurt either.

Jacksonville:

Now this is an interesting team. Forget Minnesota; the team with the best 1-2 running back punch is the Jaguars. I can't believe Fred Taylor is still good! He was always great when he wasn't hurt, but I just assumed all of the injuries would have caught up with him by now.

Meanwhile, the Patriots have their worst nightmare staring at them in this next game. New England's defense is really good at scheming to stop a passing game and confuse a quarterback, but they're not particularly physical and they're really, really old. A big-time running game is exactly what they don't want to see this next round.

Still, it will be an up-hill climb for the Jags. They need to play relatively conservatively. Their key will be to dominate the time of possession. Mike Martz/Andy Reid-style play calling will kill them. No flea flickers. No surprise onside kicks. Those plays will just end up giving Tom Brady more chances to kill them. They need to consistently get good yardage on 1st down so they aren't forced into 3rd-and-longs. Garrard isn't good enough to beat New England by himself. If the defense can force a turnover here and there, they might have a shot.

New York Giants:

The Cowboys are writing thank you notes to Mike Holmgren for beating the Redskins. We never did really have a good game against them this year and I was really scared to play them again. Now, Eli Manning -- I don't mind that so much.

The Giants without Shockey aren't that imposing. They still have their super pass rush. If Umenyiora and Strahan have big days, the Cowboys could be in trouble, but I don't see it.

This is all assuming, of course, that the pre-December Cowboys show up next week. If the team that lost to Philadelphia and barely beat Carolina shows up, all bets are off.

Seattle:

Seattle is a little more dangerous than the Giants. Hasselbeck can get in a good grove and put up some points. The ghost of Shaun Alexander isn't much of a threat at running back. I think they might upset Green Bay, but only if it isn't 5 degrees and snowing.

That game will be about Favre. If he plays like he did in the first half against Dallas, Seattle might win by 20 points.

Predictions:

Jacksonville 31, New England 21
Indianapolis 24, San Diego 17
Green Bay 35, Seattle 31
Dallas 31, NY Giants 13

I had to pick at least one upset... :) Dirk Nowitzki will send Brady a condolence card.